President Kgalema Motlanthe, Mrs Motlanthe, Dr Ishmael Jansen, ministers, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for the opportunity.
President Motlanthe, Mrs Motlanthe, Dr Ishmael Jansen and Mr Jonas spoke eloquently about South Africa’s growth imperative and what must be done to address many of the country’s social challenges, particularly those relating to migration and xenophobia.
Minister Kubayi also spoke clearly about our Constitution. I agree with her, and I also agree with John Adams, one of the founding fathers of the United States and one of the authors of its Constitution. I deliberately draw that parallel because, like that Constitution, South Africa’s Constitution speaks powerfully about our rightful place in the community of nations. It reminds us that South Africa belongs among the nations of the world, and that the rule of law is fundamental to our progress.
Economic growth begins with governance
South Africa can achieve economic growth of 4.5%. That is not an unrealistic aspiration.
The World Bank estimates that corruption and crime cost South Africa around 10% of GDP every year—approximately R800 billion annually.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that if South Africa improved its governance to only half the average standard of emerging markets, our economic growth rate would increase substantially over five years. Annual growth could move from the current 1.6% to between 3% and 5%.
The Bureau for Economic Research similarly argues that completing reforms in energy and logistics could increase GDP growth by a further 1.5 percentage points.
Taken together, these findings suggest that 4.5% economic growth by 2030 is well within South Africa’s reach.
For that reason, we look to government to continue accelerating structural and regulatory reforms, strengthen the rule of law, crowd in investment and create the conditions necessary for sustained economic growth.
Migration through the lens of banking
From a banking perspective, migration is reflected in the movement of money.
People move. Money moves with them.
Clients send money to support family members in Zimbabwe, Tanzania and many other countries across Africa.
Africa receives approximately US$100 billion annually in remittances from migrants to their countries of origin. This is more than twice the amount the continent receives in foreign direct investment and approximately 1.6 times the amount received in development finance.
Of that amount, approximately US$20 billion circulates within Africa itself.
South Africa receives roughly US$1.25 billion in remittances each year, while approximately US$1.5 billion flows from South Africa to other countries.
These are enormous financial flows.
They represent the extraordinary sacrifice of people who leave their families to find employment in unfamiliar places. They also reflect the discipline of migrants who save money to support loved ones back home.
These remittances pay for food, accommodation, transport, school fees, healthcare and community support. At a macroeconomic level, they strengthen foreign exchange earnings and improve balance-of-payments resilience.
From the household level to the national economy, these remittances deserve recognition because they demonstrate both courage and compassion.
What the evidence tells us about migration
Three major economic issues are closely connected to migration.
The first concerns migrants’ contribution to host economies.
The second concerns the politics surrounding migration.
The third concerns openness to the movement of people, ideas, goods and capital.
One recurring claim is that migrants take jobs, lower wages and contribute little to host countries.
That claim is not supported by the evidence.
This is not to suggest that migration creates no adjustment costs. It certainly does.
However, the overall economic impact of migration is positive.
A 2025 meta-analysis by Luce and colleagues, published in The Economies, analysed 41 international studies and concluded that immigration has a statistically significant positive impact on the economic performance of receiving countries.
The research also found that immigration tends to reduce unemployment rather than increase it.
This makes economic sense.
Migrants are not only workers.
They are consumers, tenants, commuters, savers, borrowers, traders and entrepreneurs.
They increase demand for goods while also contributing labour. They rent accommodation, purchase food, use transport, pay school fees, establish businesses and create employment opportunities.
In many cases they fill skills shortages, strengthen commercial relationships and deepen links between the countries from which they originate and those in which they now live.
Migrants also contribute to public finances.
Those employed formally pay income tax.
Those outside the formal sector still contribute through VAT when purchasing food, fuel and other goods.
The argument that migrants weaken government’s ability to serve citizens is therefore not supported by available evidence.
Why openness matters?
Both Ralph Mupita and I are custodians of major multinational African companies.
Our businesses rely on South Africa’s competitive advantages while operating successfully across the continent.
Many South African companies—including Gold Fields, Sasol, Vodacom, Absa, FirstRand, Shoprite, SPAR, Aspen and MultiChoice—have built successful African operations.
Likewise, leading African entrepreneurs such as Aliko Dangote have invested significantly in South Africa.
South African investment elsewhere on the continent amounts to approximately R500 billion, while investment from the rest of Africa into South Africa totals approximately R64 billion.
Companies such as Standard Bank depend on the trust of regulators, customers, employees, suppliers and governments across the countries where we operate.
In Standard Bank’s case, we generated R49 billion in earnings last year.
Approximately R19.7 billion, or roughly 40%, was earned outside South Africa.
We paid approximately R10.3 billion in taxes outside South Africa and R7.7 billion in South Africa.
These figures illustrate that we are genuinely African institutions whose success depends upon trust, reciprocity and legitimacy across the continent.
The importance of African integration
The African Continental Free Trade Area has the potential to increase African trade by approximately US$276 billion, representing growth of around 45%.
It could also increase Africa’s GDP by US$141 billion.
For that reason, implementation of the AfCFTA must remain an urgent priority.
The lesson from Brexit
Finally, this debate is not unique to Africa.
The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union was driven largely by migration concerns.
Whether Brexit was good politics is not my place to judge.
However, from an economic perspective, Brexit has imposed significant costs.
Current estimates suggest that Brexit has reduced UK GDP by between 6% and 8%, lowered investment by approximately 13%, and reduced employment by around 4% compared with remaining in the European Union.
South Africa should draw lessons from that experience.
Economic openness, sound governance, the rule of law and managed migration are not competing objectives.
They are mutually reinforcing foundations for inclusive growth, regional integration and long-term prosperity.
Thank you.