Europe is experiencing one of the most complicated periods in its history during peacetime. Its weak political decision-making and choices are proving fatal at every level of European society. They might lead to its economy’s ultimate collapse and social meltdown. Since integration connects European countries like a vast network of cables, the imminent blaze will likely engulf the entire bloc in a few seconds. Brussels never learned anything from Brexit and the PIGS economic crisis.
Unfortunately, Europe has always acted like a spoiled child, shaped by centuries of viewing itself as the self-proclaimed centre of the world. Even as the world evolves, its distorted perspective has preserved its civilisational mindset, influencing the West’s views and positioning in global affairs. In short, Europe and its offshoots in the US, Canada, Australia and elsewhere remain intolerant of ideas that differ from their own. They operate under an autocratic mantra: The world is Europe, and the world must become Europe!
The argument is that Europe is wilting under its triumphalism and sense of racial superiority, now spearheaded by its favoured child in Washington. In many societies, it is common for the eldest child to take over family affairs as the parents age. Europe’s growing elderly population makes it more susceptible to external pressures. In this context, the US has adeptly leveraged these vulnerabilities, positioning its geopolitical adversaries, such as China and Russia, as threats in European minds as part of its global strategy to reinforce its influence.
Moreover, Europe’s steadfast commitment to inflexible policies regarding human rights and climate change further complicates its situation. These dogmatic stances, while well-intentioned, may not align with the continent’s precarious state, risking alienation from emerging powers and alternative viewpoints. Additionally, these policies stand to destroy Europe’s policy and the welfare of its population. Brussels advocates industrial and trade policies that are cancerous to the pan-European economy and foreign relations.
• The Art of Political Subjugation
The consequences of fragile political choices are becoming increasingly clear, especially in the context of transatlantic relations. In their 2023 publication, The Art of Vassalisation: How Russia’s War on Ukraine Has Transformed Transatlantic Relations, Jana Puglierin and Jeremy Shapiro illuminate a troubling trend: Europe appears to have largely abandoned the pursuit of strategic autonomy. They posit that only France is an exception to the rule.Emmanuel Macron has also argued that Europe needs a more credible defence policy to stand up to Russia and not be a strategic “vassal” to the US.
The Ukraine conflict is pivotal as it prompts the US to enhance its military footprint across European nations. This response aims to bolster NATO’s collective defence and raises questions about the long-term implications for European sovereignty and unity. As NATO strengthens its presence, the challenge remains: how can Europe navigate its security needs while asserting its autonomy in a world where geopolitical tensions are ever-present? Europe is in a political bind and cannot escape the current entanglement and the war it seriously does not need.
The West has deliberately prolonged the Ukraine war. London and Washington blocked a Russia-Ukraine peace deal facilitated by Ankara. It is unfortunate that US warmongering complicates the European state of being and will send the whole continent into a downward spiral. Already, the war splinters Europe in more ways than it is often admitted but has no space to forge. The US needs war more than its transatlantic partner: the giant monster in its arms complex must be fed.
Supported by London and Brussels, Washington is now pushing the war deep into Russian territory. Its proxies think it is wise now to poke the bull in the eye. Beyond attacking Kursk, Ukrainian forces shelled Moscow with 144 drones. It is unclear if Europe can defend itself in case Russia retaliates. Europe’s dependence on natural gas and raw materials like nickel and uranium concentrates from Russia further complicates matters, particularly as its reliance on Russian gas remains a critical vulnerability.
• The Energy Quandary
The EU’s energy dependency has been a consistent Achilles’ heel in its foreign policy. While efforts are being made to diversify energy sources, actions like importing gas from countries tied to Russia, such as Azerbaijan and Turkey, or increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Russia make the war extremely interesting. This suggests that Russia doesn’t need to shell Berlin or Warsaw – it can simply unleash “Putin’s energy weapon” to send the entire continent tumbling.
Political divisions within the EU further complicate efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy, with countries like Belgium, France, and Spain opposing a ban on Russian LNG due to existing contracts. This situation underscores the EU’s challenge in balancing energy security with geopolitical objectives and highlights the urgent need to accelerate its green energy transition to avoid future vulnerabilities. Additionally, the fact that the EU now imports over 50% of its LNG from the US means that American businesses benefit significantly from the war Washington is facilitating overseas.
• The Art of Economic Subordination
The art of vassalisation is not confined to defence but also encompasses economic policy decisions in Brussels. Puglierin and Shapiro that Washington’s show of force – from pressuring European countries to prohibit Huawei sales to passing the highly protectionist Inflation Reduction Act – “could potentially slow economic growth in Europe and lead to (further) deindustrialisation.” Therefore, European countries are being pushed to spend beyond their means to sustain a war that serves US interests more than theirs, at a steep economic cost for all 27 member states. There will be no comeback.
The EU’s industrial policy, vital for job creation, competitiveness,and growth, has also been weakened. Industry accounts for 83% of EU exports and employs over 30 million people, but the bloc lags behind the US and China in tech-driven capitalism. Under Ursula von der Leyen’s leadership, the European Commission has failed to create robust industrial strategies capable of competing with the likes of Tencent, Alibaba, Google and Apple. The European Defence Industry Strategy is similarly impotent, leaving Europe reliant on the US for military support.
Efforts are also focused on developing sustainable industries, reducing regulatory burdens and aligning energy and environmental policies with industrial growth. Unfortunately, none of this is happening because the EU has turned itself into an über-regulator and climate fundamentalist instead of ramping up its industrial policy to support its Green Deal. Brussels also spends tons of energy externalising its climate agenda to green the Empire while bigger economies are focused on building their industrial capacities even under the Paris Agreement’s stringency.
• The Future of European Industry and Social Meltdown
The European Commission’s 2023 review of clean energy technology competitiveness revealed that, while the EU remains cost-competitive, it increasingly relies on imports for criticalcomponents, especially from China, which holds over 60% of global manufacturing capacity for batteries and solar technologies. The European Commission’s initiatives, such as the Green Deal Industrial Plan and the Critical Raw Materials Act, aim to reduce this dependency and boost domestic manufacturing, but the challenge remains immense.
The US’s escalating trade war with China over cleantech goods, including a proposed 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), has forced Europe to follow suit. The EU has imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs, but this protectionist stance threatens to hurt European automakers like Volkswagen, which are already struggling. Volkswagen has seen its market share and profitability decline, and CEO Oliver Blume has even suggested closing some German plants—a move unprecedented in the company’s 87-year history. Job losses are imminent in Germany and other EU countries.
Trade wars mean the German automotive industry is falling behind and losing its edge, with the Chinese using their overcapacity to flood global markets with their brands. As the European car sector grapples with financial losses and shrinking market share, its position as a global industrial leader is increasingly under threat. On the other hand, economic sanctions are like a blessing to Russia as they provide economic development and industrial policy space. Moscow is working on a long-term plan to dominate the rest of Europe, which may cause some countries to drift eastward. Türkiye’s recent announcement about its intent to join BRICS is unsurprising.
American dominance of Europe is not helping efforts towards peacebuilding and reconciliation. Hungarian Prime Minister Orban learned the most painful way when Brussels flatly denounced his overtures towards Moscow under strict Washington command. Unfortunately, as the war drags on, Europe will decline rapidly and fall below China, Russia and the US. Its green policies and weak industrial base would have ensured it would never claw its way back to the top.
The current environment will affect Europe’s social policies as money continues to be diverted to war instead of revitalising social and economic institutions. Social tensions in many member countries are already growing, leading to right-wing politics and anti-immigration sentiments. European citizens are headed for tough times without a stable, competitive, innovative economy. It is somewhat surprising that Von Leyen was even re-elected, and this is a sign that the continent is blind to seeing its demise under the current leadership.
In sum, Europe’s weak political decision-making, historical perspectives and economic policies lead it toward a perilous path of decline. European leaders must heed a call to reassess their policies and chart a more sustainable path forward.
Si ya yi banga le economy!